“Modeling Treatment Decisions in Inflammatory Bowel Disease"
Frank Scott, IV, MD, MSCE
Instructor of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology
University of Pennsylvania, School of Medicine
“Insights on Reducing the Public Health Burden of Injury through Health Services Research, Epidemiology, and Behavioral Economics"
Mucio Kit Delgado, MD, MS
Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Pennsylvania
“Large-Scale Genomic Studies of Late-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease (LOAD)”
Adam Naj, PHD
Instructor, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology
Senior Scholar, Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics
University of Pennsylvania Perelman SOM
“Using Probabilistic Bias Analysis to Address Classification Problems in Pharmacoepidemiology"
Timothy L. Lash, DSc, MPH
Professor, Department of Epidemiology,
Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlantic Georgia
"What the Hell?"
Michael Proschan, PhD Mathematical Statistician Biostatistics Research Branch National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases National Institutes of Health
Abstract: Biostatistics departments struggle when deciding how much rigor is needed for probability. Most do not want to send their students to the Mathematics Department for a year to cover esoteric topics that will never arise in practice. But what does arise in practice? Could those pathological counterexamples that probability textbooks present ever actually occur?
This talk presents, in a painless way, examples from biostatistics and everyday experiences showing that anomalies can occur, especially in conditional probability and expectation. To prevent these from happening to you, you should 1) attend this talk, and 2) buy our upcoming book, Essentials of Probability Theory for Statisticians (Chapman & Hall) by Michael Proschan and Pamela Shaw, when it becomes available.